Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Now Is The Time To Invest

Memories are short and life is long. Not long ago there was talk of "affordable housing" and this vision became reality for one of two reasons; lower prices (cheaper homes) or lower interest rates (cheaper money). Today, in September of 2010 would be home owners and investors find themselves in the unique convergence of historic lows in both price and interest rates. This buy opportunity has not existed for over five decades and it is further affected by the lowest amount of new home construction restricting supply even further. For the home owner we are seeing Napa County ownership costs falling below rental rates and for investors positive cash flows at purchase are not uncommon.
Once the economy begins to turn and money is made more available there will be a parade of buyers seeking to take advantage of this opportunity before it escapes their grasp.
There are a number of factors to consider in the purchase, management and disposing of the investment single family home. My first consultation is without charge and an email to me at cbnapa@napanet.net will assure you an invitation to my upcoming seminar "Opportunity Knocks; Investing for Your Future". Learn now how you can use 2010 market conditions to create 2015 security for you and your family. Let's talk soon, Charlie 707-258-2030

Tuesday, May 12, 2009


THE WILD WEST
Real Talk, Napa Valley Register
May 9, 2009 Edition

Real Estate Article by Charles Bogue

If you are accustomed to conducting your business in a timely and organized manner, buying a home owned by a lending institution will likely prove a challenge.You will find that the institutional seller has little regard for the timelines, conditions and contingencies of your offer to purchase. Tossing aside the long-standing legal and ethical standards established by the Department of Real Estate and the California Association of Realtors, institutional lenders overburdened with foreclosed homes have, in essence, ignored traditional business practice in the name of expediency.

With lenders often delegating their real estate-owned properties to assigned asset managers, the pipeline of these homes has fallen into the hands of designated agents attempting to serve the interests of the seller. It is estimated that of distressed sale properties in Napa County more than 40 percent are represented by Realtors based outside the area.A buyer or buyer’s agent can certainly respect the listing agent’s intense workload and the demands of their lender seller, but this respect often fades over issues such as lack of timely communication, ignoring of contract contingencies and inability to obtain information on the property or status of the contract.

The institutional seller can designate which form they would like to use in structuring the buyer’s offer, required addendums, deposit instructions, and often a set of requirements and rules needed for an offer to be considered. It is often recommended to place no date in the time for acceptance, and if a date is stated it is more often than not ignored by the seller.Unless your contract is intensely communicated and defended by your Realtor, you will often experience delays. You will want your Realtor to attach, as part of your contract, an REO advisory document defining the disclosure issues applicable to the seller.

Even though there are contractual difficulties in the purchase of bank owned properties, many sales are completed at highly discounted prices. Motivated by record low interest rates and record low prices, buyers are establishing a bottom to a market that has been saturated with supply.Given the rules of the game, and the knowledge that they are frequently broken, it may still be in your interest to benefit from this unique market condition. To increase your success, work with your Realtor to meet seller demands. Obtain a lender prequalification statement, minimize the contingencies on your purchase, make an appropriate deposit and offer a price that is keyed to market value and not necessarily the offering price. It is common for a seller to under-price the property to encourage bidding, allowing the marketplace to determine price.Just because you may be at a disadvantage by dealing with an institutional seller, do not give up negotiations with the lender seller on payment of repairs, payment of contract deposits or meeting contract timelines. The seller wants a sale.The civil negotiations between the owner occupying seller and soon-to-be-occupying buyer are the exception in today’s market. Just as in the Wild West, hire the fastest gun. And when you go to town, you better mean business.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009



COPIA PHASE 1
Napa Valley Life Magazine
April/May 2009

Real Estate Article by Charles Bogue

When the doors to the American Center for Wine, Food and the Arts were closed in November of 2008 the use of the 80,000 square foot structure and the surrounding gardens was lost, but let’s not forget that so much had been gained.

Commonly known as Copia, the creation and activities of this landmark relocated the commercial center of gravity in the Napa Valley. Despite a history of mounting debt and declining revenue, it provided a civic magnet that attracted investment beyond all expectation.

Opening festivities for the combined museum, education and entertainment center fell tragically in the week of 2001 when the world was changed by the events of 9/11. In the critical winter months that followed flight travel ceased, visitor traffic declined and the state of the world could give little time or attention to a monument celebrating the luxuries of wine, food and art.

Despite its apparent temporary failing, history will likely cite that we are in fact witnessing a very successful first phase of Robert and Margaret Mondavi’s life dream. The subject of endless critique by locals and visitors alike, Copia has suffered a continuous identity crisis in search of its true mission and economic sustainability as a profitable showplace for the wine, food and art in America.

Perhaps the focus placed on Copia’s inability to create a viable financial model has hidden a less visible but far greater value that the center has brought to our community. An opinion expressed by local developer Harry Price and others invested in our downtown revival is that the Mondavi commitment to place Copia in the City of Napa created a financial “tipping point” causing a civic renaissance affecting the City of Napa as well as the entire county.

Anchoring the world of food and wine, the creation of Copia shifted the geography of the south and east Napa Valley as hotels, restaurants and wine bars followed in the wake of capital infusion and defined vision. The revenue of tax dollars created by the Napa River Inn, the Westin Verasa, the Oxbow Public Market, a restored Napa Valley Opera House, an approved Ritz-Carlton hotel and numerous office and retail structures has far exceeded any individual losses created during Copia’s seven years of infancy.

At a local gathering last month, the city of Napa’s new Community Development Director Tambri Heyden sought the first public input on an eight-month $700,000 program to create a community vision of downtown Napa for the next century. In creating this “Specific Plan” the city has wisely identified the 12-acre Copia property as on of its three “catalyst sites” to receive immediate and particular attention in the development process.

Robert Mondavi bought the original land for Copia and donated over $20,000,000 toward its completed construction. The total cost was estimated at $55,000,000 and contributions of private donations, not including membership, have been in excess of $50,000,000. More than just dollar capital, members of the local community have contributed thousands of hours as volunteers assisting in the operations of the programs inside the building and activities on the surrounding grounds.

As one walks the once exquisite edible gardens at the edge of the Napa River, there emerges a hope that one day soon all the resource and energy that turned this dream into reality will not to be lost. A pioneer of sorts, the American Center for Wine, Food and the Arts evolved from tourist center into community center, providing musical celebrations, movie nights, weddings, fund raisers and a farmer’s market benefiting local residents and supporting local causes.

As the future of Copia winds it way through the courts its fate will likely end up in the hands of a selected development group intent on defining a more successful economic model for the property. The community will rely on city planners and elected officials to determine what the future use of the property will be and what role, if any, the expansive gardens will play in that resurrection.

Efforts have been made to maintain the organic gardens with minimal dollars available. With little local authority it is unlikely that the quality and condition of the organic beds can be kept to their original standard. Where Master Gardener docents once lead curious groups on educational tours, neglected beds and empty fountains await a rebirth from enthused ownership and funding.

Whether this living legacy of gardens wills survive the developer test of economic utility remains to be seen; just a short distance away a soon to be completed bridge gives hope and optimism to this eastern perimeter of the Napa Downtown Specific Plan. Looking across the river to the surveyed site of the Ritz Carlton, one can begin to feel the energy and possibility for the second phase of Copia’s ultimate destiny.

As time moves forward, we will see a more energetic and mature version of the Mondavis’ original dream created in the community or possibly by the community.

It’s not impossible that we take our destiny into our own hands. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal was entitled “Local Economics Seek Own Rival”. With vision and courage, we may find in Copia the opportunity to determine our own collective economic and social future. As the article cites, “Cities, counties and states across the nation are launching home-grown economic stimulus plans aimed at spurring local spending and keeping small businesses afloat during the recession.”

Main Street can wait no longer for Wall Street. Local residents living and working within the community will have a greater effect on their economic destiny than any grand plan conceived in Washington or Sacramento.

The future vision of downtown Napa will be determined as land uses are debated and the new specific plan is constructed. The voter passage of the Flood Control Project combined with the announcement that Copia would be placed in the City of Napa created a surge of international interest and corporate investment in our riverfront community.


Phase I of Copia has come to completion. It is with Phase II that we will determine, as a community, the fate of the property, the grounds and the dream of Robert Mondavi.

Charles Bogue is a Broker with Coldwell Banker Brokers of the Valley in Napa. He can be reached at phone: 258-5221 or e-mail: cbogue@cbnapavalley.com

Friday, April 3, 2009


COUNTY ASTROLOGER
Real Talk, Napa Valley Register
April 4, 2009 Edition

Real Estate Article by Charles Bogue

As if he were not already busy enough, it appears that John Tuteur, Napa County Assessor, Recorder and County Clerk, may have taken on an additional title this week as County Astrologer.

Caught in the fragile position of reporting to county officials the declining state of our local tax assessment base and resulting revenues, he was quoted in the Napa Valley Register as “warning county officials to expect no growth in property values this year, and an overall decline each additional year through 2013.”

Historically an excellent communicator, I would suspect that Mr. Tuteur’s intended comment was a reasonable warning regarding “assessed property valuation” and not an attempt to predict the direction of property market values over the next five years.

In the estimation of our Assessor, we are seeing home values return to the “pre-bubble” levels of 1999 and 2000. Homes purchased prior to that time appear to not have had their value affected and will likely not receive a reduced valuation for the purpose of assessment.

Once a year, on January 1, the Assessor’s office reviews the valuation of your property to determine if reassessment is appropriate. Approximately 5,000 homes in Napa County were “re-set” in 2008 and it is anticipated that an additional 2,500 to 3,000 will be adjusted in the January 2009 assessment.

In a gathering before a group of Realtors this week Mr. Tuteur stated that homes subject to possible adjustments will be reviewed by his department and adjustments will be made without the need of any request or submission on behalf of the home owner.

Assessing the source of the current downturn, Assessor Tuteur was quoted to say “Even though homes are selling, they’re selling at these very low prices with more than 50 percent of the market (in Napa County) in foreclosure.” An important point of clarity in this statement is that the reference is that 50 percent of the home “sold” in the county are foreclosure sales and not that 50 percent of homes that exist in the county are in foreclosure.

Foreclosure statistics become complex when reports often include the same home as sold twice; first as transfer under lender foreclosure and a second time when sold as a bank owned property.

To this point, Ken Rosen of Urban Exonomics at UC Berkeley states that “It’s a repeat-sales index, which overstates foreclosures. The index compares values when the same house changes hands twice- which has led to charges that it (the index) overemphasizes foreclosed homes, because so many of them are currently flooding the market”.

The local housing story has not been bright and it has certainly been filled with financial tragedy. Mr. Tuteur’s reporting of current realities is necessary for financial planning and protecting our county’s future. We are fortunate to have someone so qualified, dedicated and committed to this public service.

When it comes to predicting the future of the housing market opinions are speculative at best. Contrary to reports of gloom and doom, economist Thomas Lawler notes that “if there is a perception on the part of home buyers that the economy might start to rebound in the foreseeable future, then home sales could rebound before the economy does.”

We can assemble endless facts and figures from the past to tell us where we have been and how we got here; yet, when it comes to the future there is no crystal ball or sage astrologist that can tell us when the market will turn or what lies ahead.

Charles Bogue is a Broker with Coldwell Banker Brokers of the Valley in Napa. He can be reached at phone: 258-5221 or e-mail: cbogue@cbnapavalley.com

Sunday, January 25, 2009

CALL FOR ACTION

Real Talk, The Napa Valley Register

Real Estate Article by Charles Bogue

President Barack Obama presented a picture of “gathering clouds and raging storms” as he took the helm in what could be the most challenging time a president has entered office in a history of 44 transitions. As he eloquently laid out the task before the nation he clearly placed the resolution of what we face not in the hands of the government but in the hands of each of us, to evaluate our actions of the past and redefine our expectations for the future.

The multiple applications of his address affect many audiences, from foreign governments to the victims and perpetrators of our economic collapse at home. It proposes a worthy exercise that we examine our role in a future of limited government entitlements and renewed commitment to personal responsibility.

Said our new president, “What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility-recognition on the part of every American that we have duties to ourselves, our nation and the world.”

Given the current economy, the nation and world may need to wait as most Americans are confronted with dropping housing values, tight or non existent credit and rising unemployment.

Evidence of the severity of our economic condition is supported by recent market reports.
The decline in the median home price by 38 percent from December 2007 to December 2008 confirms a California real estate market at its lowest point since February 2002. Bank owned foreclosure properties make up 58 percent of the sales statewide in December 2008, up from 27 percent one year ago.

Reflected in these numbers is Obama’s assessment that “our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices.” Personal food for thought as we salvage fractured investment portfolios and seek reasonable risk opportunities in a new reality: “the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many.”

As each of us charts a new personal course within today’s economic realities, the president offers further advice that “our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions - that time has surely passed.”

Experiencing a loss of faith in our trusted financial institutions and advisors, Americans have misplaced their compass as they seek to replenish their damaged security values and covet their remaining assets.

The question posed by Mr. Obama Tuesday morning was “not whether government is too big or too small but whether it works”. Having just completed a year of cumulative stimulus and bailout programs the size of which we cannot compute, the president imposes on our government the same test we must impose on ourselves if we are to survive. “Spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day.”

The success of this effort is yet unknown but the quasi nationalization of banks, brokerage companies and even auto makers has changed the historical notion of the government as “those guys”; the suggestion that government is an entity other than ourselves is over. As government charts a new course we too must chart our own; as our president clearly stated “this is the price and the promise of citizenship.”

Charles Bogue is a Broker with Coldwell Banker Brokers of the Valley in Napa. He can be reached at phone: 258-5221 or e-mail: cbogue@cbnapavalley.com

Tuesday, January 20, 2009


SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL

Napa Valley Life Magazine – Feb/March 2009

Real Estate Article, by Charles Bogue


It is said that the only constant thing is change. Evidence abounds in our United States and Napa Valley alike as the political transition takes hold in Washington and premature warm days blanket the valley floor with belts of mustard between the vines.

Though we have seen little evidence of winter this year, it is the small and simple signs like mustard in the fields and bud break on the vines that give us visual reminders of nature’s process of renewal - and the opportunity for renewal within ourselves.

Just as the change of guard in our national capitol brings hope for a brighter future, the annual pruning of the vines brings hope for a new and superior crop of quality grapes.

The similarities between politics and nature extend even further as one considers the current scaling down of our national economic largesse and the grape grower focus on quality over quantity. There seems to be a new truth common to both economy and agricultural productivity: size is not the solution.

“Small Is Beautiful, Economics as if People Mattered” by E.F. Schumacher was first published in 1973. The British economist had served as the economic advisor to the British Coal Commission after World War II and became a worldwide spokesman for creating self-reliant economies by using human scale technologies. His premise, much the same as what we are confronting today, suggests in the preface to his book that “we need to reconstruct the meaning of ideas like wealth, knowledge, work, economics, development, and progress”.

E.F. Schumacher suggests that a world “moved powerfully towards consolidation, gigantism, and globalization” leaves us disconnected from our sense of purpose and our ability to identify with the institutions that come to manage our lives.

Facing the economic fallout from big business and big government, we now find the effects of the downturn spreading to all aspects of society. As a high tide floats all boats, low water puts many aground. Thinking, or perhaps hoping, that our bucolic Napa Valley would somehow be immune to the nation’s mortgage meltdown we find now that in our privileged communities 41 percent of the home sales for 2008 were either a bank owned property or a bank negotiated short sale (excluding the City of American Canyon).

This dominance of distressed sales pulled the median priced Napa Valley home down 27 percent from November of 2007 to November of 2008 and made it even more difficult to refinance or sell owner occupied homes that were not in default or facing foreclosure.

A situation that has created a year of pain and tragedy for so many homeowners has resulted in a unique market opportunity for qualified home buyers. Long-term wisdom might look back to this moment in time when record low home prices converged with the lowest mortgage rates since Freddie Mac first tracked the data in 1971.

Taking advantage of interest rates below 5 percent, first time home buyers, property investors and homeowners seeking to refinance are flocking to lenders. Suspecting that this price/interest rate window may be short term in length many buyers are seeking to lock in 30 year fixed rate money secured by discounted bank owned foreclosed properties. Because all properties are affected by lower prices and a weak economy, great values are to be had in all areas of the market including those homes not affected by foreclosure.

The low home values create a particular buying opportunity for those seeking to reduce their housing costs by “right sizing” to less space and reduced maintenance. Included in this group are those seeing a unique opportunity to buy the wine country getaway or the desert condominium at a price that had escaped them as values soared out of reach from 2002 to 2005.

The number of homes on the market for sale in the city of Napa has dropped from 453 in January of 2008 to 381 in December of 2008. This decrease in inventory is reflected in the drop of “months of current inventory” over the same time period from 17.4 to 8.1 months, indicating a likely shift from a heavy buyers’ market towards a balanced or possible sellers’ market were foreclosures to decline and credit to be made more available.

The convergence of low prices and low interest rates answers the technical question of this being a great opportunity to buy property in the Napa Valley, but likely a drive through the vineyards will be what seals the deal. Economist Schumacher summed it up well as he addressed his chapter on The Proper Use of Land: “Among material resources, the greatest, unquestionably, is the land. Study how a society uses its land, and you can come to pretty reliable conclusions as to what its future will be.”

Thanks to the history of our County Agricultural Preserve zoning and the efforts of The Land Trust of Napa County in preserving open space, this is a test we can not only withstand but where we can excel. From apartment dweller to proprietor of a hillside Tuscan villa, residents and visitors alike are drawn to the vines and to the earth to which they are attached.

Change is taking place whether we like it or not. To be a part of our valley is to be a part of nature itself. There are no bad seats on this bus. There are only three guiding words in real estate: timing, timing, timing. As we move through the months ahead, the time to own a part of this unique valley might never be so great. If you don’t want to be the one to look back, you may want to look out.

Charles Bogue is a Broker with Coldwell Banker Brokers of the Valley in Napa. He can be reached at phone: 258-5221 or e-mail: cbogue@cbnapavalley.com

Friday, November 23, 2007

The Day After


Thanksgiving Day found the Napa Valley with clear blue skies with cold nights and a warm day for holiday gatherings. The crops are in for 2008 and another great year is on the horizon.
Back later for the real estate report as politics, oil, and financing interact in the securities market and real estate values. All for now but stay tuned for the "real story" on Napa Valley Real Estate. Charlie: